EXPERT PREDICTIONS: CHOCOLATE COULD DISAPPEAR BY 2050

Extreme weather conditions are threatening the future of cocoa plantations worldwide, posing a serious risk to the global chocolate industry. Scientists are therefore exploring alternative, climate-resilient crops that could be used to create new confectionery products.

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Around 60 percent of the world’s cocoa production comes from West Africa, particularly from humid countries such as Ivory Coast and Ghana, where warm temperatures and heavy rainfall alternate with short dry periods, according to Euronews. However, over the past two years cocoa production has dropped by as much as 40 percent. As a result, chocolate prices have surged to levels not seen since the 1970s, and experts warn that a world without cocoa could become a reality as early as 2050.

Several factors point to the possible disappearance of chocolate. Earlier reports cited illegal gold mining, aging cocoa trees and even smuggling as key causes, but recent research shows that the main culprit is the increasingly sharp contrast between extreme weather conditions, particularly intense rainfall.

The Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University notes that cocoa’s sensitivity to weather is not new, but climate change is “intensifying heavy rainfall” as global temperatures rise, reports Euronews. For every one-degree Celsius increase in air temperature, the atmosphere can hold about seven percent more moisture, leading to heavier and more intense rainfall.

“The basic physics is simple: a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which amplifies extreme precipitation. This leads to waterlogging of the soil, erosion and conditions favorable for the development of fungal diseases,” researchers explain.

Driven by this climate-induced collapse, scientists at the National University of Singapore have begun searching for solutions.

Their research has focused on carob, a climate-resilient plant traditionally grown in the Mediterranean region, which is gradually gaining attention as a potential alternative to cocoa.

Unlike cocoa, carob thrives in hot and dry conditions and requires very little water. When roasted, it releases a unique aroma reminiscent of cocoa, although its taste does not fully match it. To overcome this challenge, the research team developed two techniques to modify the flavor of carob, using enzymes to enhance bitterness and sweetness.

The enzymatic treatment is described as a simple and clean method requiring minimal processing, unlike other approaches that involve aggressive chemicals, such as hydrochloric acid, to improve taste.

By enhancing the aromatic profile of carob, researchers believe they could encourage confectionery manufacturers to use it in products that traditionally rely on cocoa, including chocolate bars, cocoa powders, sweet beverages and other cocoa-based products.